Elite tensions with democracy

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Chris Hayes has been the Editor at Large for The Nation magazine for a few years now, among numerous other gigs, and now has his own show on MSNBC on Saturday and Sunday mornings.  It’s a brilliant re-envisioning of the stale weekly public affairs shows dominated by the same rotating cast of characters, in part because of the sheer diversity of the guests Hayes features.  Sunday’s program had 3 women at the table along with Hayes and another male guest, for example.  Try finding that sort of gender-ratio on “Meet the Nation News Sunday.”  Beyond the guests, however, the show strives to offer a diversity of opinions on a multitude of topical stories, and to dig into the details of what’s happening and why in a way the typical news program is simply unable to.  As a perfect example and segway into my point, in the video above, Hayes lays out an argument as to why the Supercommittee’s failure this past week is in fact a good thing for America; his sentiments are ones that I have been mulling over recently myself.  Do watch it.

Hayes mentions the recent ascensions to the top leadership posts of two technocrats in Greece and Italy, noting that their jobs, their mandates upon entering office, are to push through deeply unpopular austerity packages over the will of the majority of their supposed constituents. 

Technocracy has suddenly become all the rage amidst the debt crisis of the eurozone. In Greece, prime minister George Papandreou was ousted in favour of the unelected former central banker Lucas Papademos, after he had the effrontery to call the referendum that never was. In Italy, Mario Monti, the unelected former EU commissioner, has anointed a cabinet of academics, bankers and an admiral, without a single representative of Italy’s political parties. This novel step is designed to reassure international bond markets, which have recently pushed Italy’s yields to perilous levels. (emphasis added)

Key takeaway: the political process is anathema to international finance. 

Consider a few short weeks ago when then-Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou had (shockingly!) called for a national referendum to be held on the terms of an European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout plan that would have included harsh austerity measures to be imposed on the Greek people.  The markets crashed, and the two biggest European economies’ leaders reacted with scorn:

At a bruising meeting in Cannes on Wednesday night, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned [Papandreou] that Athens would not receive a cent more in aid until it met its commitments to the euro zone.

Greece was due to get a vital 8 billion euro installment this month and says it will run out of money in mid-December if it does not get the loan.

Despite the turmoil in Athens and uncertainty over the euro zone, European stock markets and the euro rallied in volatile trading as the likelihood grew that Greece would not hold the highly risky referendum.

Note that opening the decision-making process up to those who will bear the brunt of any economic decisions made by the powers-that-be, the citizenry, is tantamount, in this calculation, to introducing high risk into the equation.  The cold logic of finance, of interest rates and debt-to-GDP ratios, does not comport well with the warm inefficient fuzziness of the electorate, with their myriad voices and parochial/familial concerns.  How are the financiers supposed to get their bailouts when the poor rubes paying for it demand something more than the simple extraction of wealth from their country? 

The power relationships on evidence in the foregoing snippet of the Greek referendum situation are revealing: the larger “creditor” economies of France and Germany here acted as front-line enforcers with the wayward Greek leader Papandreou; the EU, a supra-national body of European nations acted in concert with the IMF, another supra-national body representing the strictly monetary interests of client nations, to craft a bailout package for Greece that brings great pain to the Greek people; meanwhile, the Greek people are demonstrating and rioting in the streets by the tens or hundreds of thousands to show their disapproval, and yet, they are pawns in the grand scheme.  What are the Greek people supposed to do when it seems the entire world (particularly the sanctimonious Germans) is blaming them as a people for being profligate – where are they to turn to voice their opinions democratically when the one opportunity they would have had to do so is brutally snatched away from them by shadowy international forces?

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This sordid and ongoing tale of crisis in Europe reveals the flipside to the ethos of globalization that has dominated international politics since the early days of the “Washington Consensus”.  In order to govern worldwide flows of goods, services and capital, world-bestriding structures of governance must be created.  To the extent that those structures are endowed with the authority to act in crises, those actions are by nature going to be out of the direct control of the citizenry of the nations affected, thus denying the citizens of the world recourse to shape the responses of those supra-national institutions.  The structures of these institutions ensure that their responsiveness will be primarily directed towards the largest stakeholders – the largest economies and the largest private financial institutions – thus making the decisions made representative of the policy prescriptions of an even more rarefied status of elites.  Power is thus concentrated further, with the results trickling down upon the rest of us.  And again, we have effectively no recourse to change much at all. 

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The notion that centralization=efficiency, related to the economic concept of “economies of scale,” has reigned supreme in much of the modern industrialized world.  We see these tenets manifested in the superstores we shop at, the industrially-produced agriculture we purchase, and the (public) school systems we send our children to be educated at, for just a few examples.  Our governmental policies, and indeed, the growth of the federal government itself in the past century, has reflected the notion that centralized governance is necessarily better for all due to greater standardization of outputs and efficiencies gained.

And yet, centralization creates with it a certain culture as well, an elite culture where those well-versed in the human power relationships and bureaucratic operations of the institutions influence the direction of decision-making to their own ends.  Centralization creates, not only an institution’s set of substantive actions with which it operates in society, but an entire class of administrators devoted to the upkeep and promulgation of the institution itself through budgeting, revenue collection, inter-institutional lobbying, and so forth.  Institutions, first and foremost, desire to keep existing, thus creating a tension with their public service functions.

I would argue that much of the Occupy-inspired debate currently ongoing in our society is at least in part related to the discussion of how much the public interest is served by various institutions of government versus how much those institutions merely serve as vehicles for particular interests to enact their wills.  The public wants accountability for the financial sector, but the relevant regulators have shown themselves to be rather more beholden to the interests of Big Finance than the public interest (see my posts on housing for more on that).  The public wants more investment in clean energy, yet there is an institutional structure within our government dedicated to fossil fuels, from the military fighting wars that just happen to be in oil-rich regions, to the massive tax breaks and other indirect subsidies for fossil fuels baked into our tax code.  How do we get the changes the populace wants enacted into law?  We have to rely on elected representatives with a slew of other institutional and professional competing interests to act on our behalf – not an easy thing to do, apparently!

The clear answer to these problems appears to be decentralization – a reduction of the scale of decision-making to a more manageable, democratic, and community-oriented size.  The General Assemblies occurring at the Occupy encampments around the country have represented that trend most vividly, as Chris Hayes highlighted in the clip above.  While some efficiency may certainly be lost along the way, democracy and true representation can be gained, ensuring that the rule of an unaccountable elite, such as we are witnessing today, is significantly more difficult to achieve.  Consider the supra-national institutions I’ve noted above – they are, if anything, abstractions of representative government; meta-representative democracies, if you will.  Who are their constituents but other client states and their assorted national economic interests?  Who are their leaders but those who have been most agreeable to said client states and economic interests?  How have you been personally helped by the IMF lately?

I hope to pick up further threads of this discussion in a future post, as there’s a lot to the topic of decentralization to discuss.  As always, your comments are welcomed and appreciated in the comments area below.

The #Occupy movement and the generations

Just a short note of gratitude and no small amount of incredulity at the cross-generational dialogues that have been fostered through and around the Occupy movement, which I and others view as largely a Millenial generation-driven thing.  I was just reading a well-done post by Charles B. Pierce at Esquire’s Politics Blog and noting his tone lamenting the political fecklessness of many of those from his generation now holding the reins of power:

How hard can this be? How hard is it to tell people to get angry at the people who really are making off with their country's wealth and their personal futures, especially when it's the god's honest truth? How hard is it to tell people that they are not the enemy, that to shoot pepper spray into the eyes of a college student is to spit in the eye of everyone else? Please do not hand me concerns for your "political viability." That makes you cowards. The protesters are doing the hard work. They're the ones living in a dozen tiny Argentinas all around this country. They're the ones getting beaten up and tortured, on TV, with chemical agents. They're the ones going to jail. All I'm asking is that you all have their backs, and all you have to do is get up and give a whole bunch of speeches saying so. Right now, they're pretty much out their on an island while empty charlatans like Newt Gingrich and prissy little shmoes like David Brooks are beating them over the head rhetorically, while the cops are more than happy — indeed, damned near gleeful — to do it in person.

Barney Frank wonders where the Occupiers were during the elections of 2010? Give them a politics worthy of their courage and they'll show up. This does not seem to me to be a difficult problem, but it does appear possibly to be the last chance for progressive politics for an awfully long time. You don't need an $850,000 contract to see that.

That second bolded sentence “Give them a politics worthy of their courage and they’ll show up” sounds like one of the best lines I’ve heard this year, for both its succinct razor-edge of truth, to its political astuteness.  This generation out protesting, my generation, is the one that greatly helped President Obama get elected.  We came out of the Bush era scarred (as I’ve noted previously) and looking for a change that Obama appeared to represent.  But more than that, he represented prudent judgment in correctly sizing up many of the true threats to our country (the undercutting of civil liberties domestically and human rights abroad, being cogent for me in particular) and, yes, a courage in his opposition to the Iraq War that was greatly lacking in the politics of those days, and even moreso today.  The reality of President Obama has been drastically different from the representation of Candidate Obama, but at the time, he showed a side of politics that people yearned for.  Show us courageous politicians taking stands that put them on the right side of popular sentiment, particularly in the face of a potential loss of big money campaign donors, and I bet my generation will show up.

So it is with that background in mind that I have been considering the amount of support I see and hear from older generations for the movement now sweeping America.  A close family member informed me that on her recent trip to New York she happened upon an Occupy Wall Street group at a public park (not Zuccotti, mind you) and was very impressed with the “human microphone” and the positive, steadfast energy the group displayed, despite it being an awful, rainy NYC November day.  The Facebook posts I see from Gen-Xers, Baby Boomers, and on up regarding the Occupy Movement evince a strong bond between the generations that I don’t think I’ve ever seen as clearly in my life. 

I had always feared that the elites’ plan to divide the entitlement program pie, and to set those of us in younger generations on a different retirement plan than our parents, threatened to separate the generations (which is probably the point!) and why you still hear many GOP candidates discussing giving young people the “option” of purchasing health savings accounts and the like.  The fact that we’re all working and saving towards a common fund, a common vision, means we’re all in it together, to some extent, despite the fact that the powers-that-be want all that locked-up Social Security and Medicare money to be released to the predations and speculations of Wall Street. 

But now, the elites have played their hand too far.  They’ve effectively united a strong bloc of people across the generations because, let’s face it, we’ve all been looted in some way or another.  We recognize a common enemy: the collusion between big business and big government that works to undercut our rights and to separate an already economically-stratified society into one where you have vastly different justice systems, depending on your standing and net worth (witness this egregious hit-and-run case from Colorado last year involving a “wealth manager” and a cyclist for a great/horrifying example).  There’s no justice for those on the top, but a harsh and exacting justice for those of us not at the top.  Witness the UC Davis pepper-spraying last Friday:

Glenn Greenwald’s take on the UC Davis situation adroitly points towards the larger issue at play in our society:

The UC-Davis Chancellor responsible for the pepper-spraying of her students, Linda Katehi, today went on Good Morning America and explained why she should not resign or otherwise be held accountable: “we really need to start the healing process and move forward.” On a radio program in the afternoon, she expanded on this view by saying: “We need to move on.” So apparently — yet again — the only way everyone can begin to “heal” and “move forward” is if everyone agrees that those in power with the greatest responsibility be fully shielded from any consequences and that their bad acts be simply forgotten. I wonder where she learned that justifying rationale?

We yearn for justice as a society.  The concept of justice embedded in the Constitution argues that those at the top and those at the bottom ought to be equal in the eyes of the law, and yet, the past decade has clearly shown how far our society has gotten from those founding principles.  Occupy, for all of its media-unfriendliness and potential to turn off the “median voter,” is a nascent attempt at reclaiming that original concept of justice.  Justice is anathema to the powers-that-be, as their gains are largely ill-gotten and their positions in society often depend on their being the the best operators within a system of legalized corruption.  The moment their hold on power slips, and they no longer control the levers of power and the judiciary, they will be subject to the comeuppance that has been long in coming, and much delayed. 

Greenwald quotes Rosa Luxemburg’s epic comment to wonderful effect:

“Those who do not move, do not notice their chains.”

If you look askance at the Occupy movement, and you see nothing but a bunch of rowdy young people lacking drive and ambition, ask yourself how you’re constrained in your own life.  What cutbacks have you had to make to your hopes and dreams, let alone your financial position?  How many of those setbacks are due entirely to your own poor judgment or over-extension, rather than being at least in part the shock wave from a system of willfully-created asset bubbles and legislatively-endorsed corruption imploding upon itself?  If you trace the origins of your own problems back to their logical starting points, do they solely originate from your decisions?  That is the line of thinking the powers-that-be hope you’ll take away.  Heaven forbid you should look up the food chain to discover how usury has been made legal and how student loans are no longer discharged in bankruptcy; how insolvent banks are allowed to claim the full face value of toxic assets to bolster their bottom lines, and yet how lying to get food stamps to feed one’s two children can net you 3 years in federal prison.  “Justice,” these days, comes at the expense of the rest of us.  We can see this fact in all its harsh reality and find a unity in it, or we can deny deny deny that the mirror the Occupy movement is holding up to our society reflects far more of our collective life experiences of brokenness and unnecessary misery than we’d care to admit. 

Thank you to those of the older generations who see the Occupy movement not as a threat, but as the opportunity for a rebirth.  We need you, and you need us.  We ARE in this together.

Ask and ye shall receive

As a follow-up to my post from last week regarding polling on the question of whether the GOP is purposely sabotaging economic recovery in order to defeat President Obama next year, I thought I’d bring my dear readers’ attentions to the results of two new polls released today that cover similar territory.  I had mentioned that the Suffolk University poll from last week was just crying out for additional data to help discern a trend or not, and it appears we have some further data to work with now.

First off, a Washington Post/ABC News poll of 1,004 adults, with a 3.5% margin of error asked the following question:

Which of the following statements comes closest to your point of view? Statement A: (President Obama is making a good faith effort to deal with the country's economic problems, but the Republicans in Congress are playing politics by blocking his proposals and programs.) Or Statement B: (President Obama has not provided leadership on the economy, and he is just blaming the Republicans in Congress as an excuse for not doing his job.)

Compare the wording to that of last week’s Suffolk University poll:

Do you think the Republicans are intentionally stalling efforts to jumpstart the economy to insure that Barack Obama is not reelected?

The WaPo/ABC poll is not as clear with respondents about the political intent of any perceived economic sabotage on the GOP’s part – referring to “playing politics” rather than “to insure that Barack Obama is not reelected” – but the underlying message is essentially the same: do you think the GOP is purposely making the economy worse for political purposes?  The results:

Which of the following statements comes closest to your point of view? Statement A: (President Obama is making a good faith effort to deal with the country's economic problems, but the Republicans in Congress are playing politics by blocking his proposals and programs.) Or Statement B: (President Obama has not provided leadership on the economy, and he is just blaming the Republicans in Congress as an excuse for not doing his job.)

Obama making a good effort: 50
Obama has not provided leadership: 44
Both (vol.): 2
Neither (vol.): 2
No opinion: 1

And once again, the results of the Suffolk poll:

Do you think the Republicans are intentionally stalling efforts to jumpstart the economy to insure that Barack Obama is not reelected?

Yes 49
No 39
Undecided 12

Okay then!  Seems like there could be something more to this meme now.  Greg Sargent pulls out the internals of the WaPo poll, providing more points of interest:

The toplines: Americans agree with the first statement over the second one, 50-44. According to numbers sent my way by the Post polling team, this is more pronounced among moderates and independents:

* Independents favor statement one over statement two by 54-40.

* Moderates favor statement one over statement two by 57-37.

The overall number is lower, at 50 percent, because a hilariously meager nine percent of Republicans believe this to be the case.

Who likes to have their side accused of “playing politics” with anything?  It just sounds offensive when we’re talking about real peoples’ lives and the overall economy, no wonder only 9% of Republicans agree with statement #1.

Our third poll of the day, which Talking Points Memo’s Brian Beutler argues constitutes a “trend,” (I would agree) is one commissioned by the liberal blog DailyKos:

Also on Monday, liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas publicized the top lines of a PPP poll he commissioned, which closely mimic the the Post/ABC survey: “50% think GOP intentionally stalling economy, incl 51% of Indies, & 15% of GOPers. Details Tuesday.”

So here we have three polls showing broadly similar results to similarly-worded questions (although the exact wording of the DailyKos poll will be out tomorrow) and which also show that a majority of independents ascribe to some version of the notion that the GOP is deliberately sabotaging the economy.  As we are all surely aware now, the vast and growing “middle” of the electorate is where the true electoral battleground lies for 2012 (and virtually every modern election) so it would appear that President Obama has the upper hand with this crucial slice of the populace, no?  Steve Benen, echoing Greg Sargent, notes the inherent danger of the polls’ findings for the President:

Though in theory, it should, this won’t necessarily give President Obama a boost. The degree of national cynicism is so intense, many Americans may simply assume Republicans are sabotaging the national economy, but take their frustrations out on the president anyway. As Greg noted, “The number who see Obama as a strong leader is now upside down (48-51), suggesting yet again that even if Americans understand that Republicans are deliberately blocking Obama’s policies, they may conclude that his failure to get around them just shows he’s weak or ineffectual.”

Voters’ understanding of the political process is severely limited, and many Americans likely fail to appreciate the role Congress must play in policymaking. There are no doubt plenty of voters thinking, “Sure, Republicans are sabotaging the economy, but why can’t Obama just go around them?” unaware of the fact that, on a grand scale, this isn’t an option. (emphasis added)

Indeed, President Obama’s failure to “get around” Congress is the true reason why he’s embarked on his “jobs tour” the past couple months – taking his message directly to the people of America, urging them to contact their Congressmember and tell them to act on jobs and the economy.  In a broad sense, it appears the efforts are paying off, according to Josh Marshall.  Furthermore, the amount of braying from the GOP about “class warfare” from the President has increased proportionally as his jobs message has caught on.  Witness Rep. Eric Cantor’s aborted speech about “income inequality” (note: he canceled the speech when it was revealed that Occupy protesters planned to respond to him by exercising their free speech rights) and Rep. Paul Ryan’s speech to the conservative Heritage Foundation largely predicated on the notion that America needs to preserve its heritage of economic mobility through surprise! not raising taxes on the wealthiest among us.  (Note: he’s wrong about our economic mobility rates compared to other countries.) 

So where does all of this data leave us now?  Well it would seem that President Obama needs to work closely with the Democrats in Congress to present a focused message (not easy with Democrats, ever) regarding the GOP’s obstructionism.  Pushing the “sabotage” message, in concert with more polling data showing similar results to those presented here, will force the media to cover the sabotage meme more widely and thus put the Republicans on defense on job creation – exactly the situation they hope not to find themselves in heading into a still-very-unsettled GOP presidential primary season and an election year.  President Obama’s rather limited moves last week on student loan reform, homeowner relief and jobs proposals for veterans might represent a good-faith show of effort for those skeptical independents and moderates doubting his leadership, and they could marginally influence his standing with those key constituencies.  But overall, those moves show the Presidency’s economic weakness vis-à-vis Congress, and the relative ineffectiveness of the Executive branch’s sprawling bureaucracy to help improve peoples’ lives in a truly meaningful way.  Coordinated actions between the Executive and Legislative branches are what is needed, but until Obama and the Democrats can find leverage points to force the Congressional GOP’s hands on job creating legislation, it is unlikely the President will be able to do much more than chip away at the margins of the economic problems facing this country, winning message or not.

Even the Super Committee gets a bailout

A headline from today’s Los Angeles Times:

Congressional leaders jump in to save 'super committee'

In an effort to end the deadlock on deficit reductions, party leaders, especially on the Republican side, are meeting behind closed doors with members of the panel.

Okay, so perhaps we’re talking more about a legislative bailout of sorts, but is it not a perfect microcosm of the depravity of American politics that a panel convened due to the failure in leadership on the part of our “leaders” to figure out “responsible” ways to rein in fiscal deficits over the summer (“responsible” in Washington-speak meaning “measures that maximally shift any deficit-reduction burden onto the backs of the coddled lower and middle classes so as to spare the overburdened upper classes from having to pony up anything further in the way of taxes”) and which is now faced with “failure” (here meaning an automatic triggering of across-the-board cuts to the sacred cows of both left and right, in this case the entitlement and defense spending, respectively) due to fundamental disagreements on how much and how best to stick it to the lower and middle classes, is now being furiously “saved” by leadership so as to continue its “noble” work of further impoverishing millions who are already struggling.  Note the journalist’s framing of the issue at stake here:

Failure to reach a compromise by Thanksgiving to slash $1.5 trillion from the nation's deficits over the next decade could send shock waves through the fragile economy, as happened during the summer debt ceiling standoff. Failure would also trigger automatic budget cuts that both parties want to avoid. (emphasis added)

The implicit assumption in the highlighted sentence is that the economy could be roiled by the “failure” of the Super Committee to reach agreement on deficit reduction measures other than those mandated in the trigger agreement.  To be more specific, in this framing, the markets will react negatively if deficit reduction agreements of sufficient size and scope are not reached by the Super Committee.  Indeed, I agree with this analysis, but for reasons other than those the journalist implies.

The markets may well face turmoil whatever the outcome of the Super Committee, because whether the Super Committee is “successful” or not, the vast majority of Americans lose in some way or another, facing elite-imposed austerity for what is a manifestly elite-generated economic crisis.  Austerity, as has been witnessed in Europe the past few years, may work to reduce budget deficits in the short run, but in the longer term, as government spending is reduced, that compounds with reduced recessionary spending by consumers as well as businesses, thus leading to less consumer demand, hence more layoffs, hence lower tax revenues, which leads to calls for further austerity…the cycle is virtually endless.  You then may get calls for a government to sell off or privatize public assets in order to create revenue, which ultimately reduces public wealth and resources in the long run.  Counter-cyclical government spending is designed to stimulate demand in the short-term, in order to create positive spillover effects for the private sector and to avoid demand slackening to the point that you have a wave of business closures with the attendant layoffs and structural deformations of local/regional/national economies.  The counter-cyclical government spending notion is the linchpin of Keynesian economic theory, and despite their professed love of free markets, many Republicans tend to like the Keynesian view of government spending policies as a remedy for a sick economy, at least when it comes to defense spending 

Representative Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland and a member of the panel, said the attempt to undo the triggers “reflects a total lack of seriousness.” Adding that such efforts would not be successful, he said they were “the result of people trying to escape the fundamental choices before us, and one of those choices is whether or not we are willing to end special interest tax breaks to pay for defense.” The White House is also highly unlikely to approve such actions. The president is averse to the military cuts, but saw the threat of them as a way to pressure Republicans to reach a deal. “There is more fear this time,” Representative Mo Brooks, Republican of Alabama, said about the anxiety being expressed by military contractors in his district. Mr. Brooks said he voted against the debt-ceiling legislation because of the possibility of deep Pentagon cuts.

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Republicans have expressed more alarm about possible across-the-board cuts in Pentagon spending than Democrats have voiced about cuts in domestic programs that would also occur. Many safety-net programs for low-income people, like Medicaid and food stamps, would be exempt from automatic cuts. And Medicare payments to health care providers could not be reduced by more than 2 percent.  (emphases added)

Yes yes, make sure to protect the all-important “job creating,” “100% private-sector” defense contractors, and pay no attention to the mewling from the general public about the austerity they must contend with.  We must ensure the revenue stream for government to the contractors is uninterrupted, lest their fraudulent schemes for bilking taxpayers out of their hard-earned money are subjected to closer public scrutiny!

At least 91 contractors holding contracts worth $270 billion were the subjects of civil fraud judgments -- and in some cases criminal fraud convictions as well, many of which resulted in fines, suspensions or debarments. Even so, Defense Department contracting officers still assigned $4.9 billion worth of work with these companies after the fraud was uncovered, the report said.

The contractors identified in the report include such blue-chip entities as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Pratt & Whitney, IBM and even the Yale medical school.

All this to say that the markets will likely react poorly to any austerity measures in the US beyond what has already been enacted, because corporations and the markets recognize that consumer demand is the weak link in the American economy at this time, not the impending threat of governmental default due to an overly burdensome public debt load (unless it is a default threat created out of Congressional dysfunction, as it was this past summer).

“You’ve got to stimulate demand growth,” said Indra Nooyi, CEO of Purchase, New York-based PepsiCo, in an interview. “Until we stimulate primary consumption, the cash will continue to sit on the sidelines.”

The companies’ warnings follow a cut to the U.S. credit rating on Aug. 5 and a two-week rout in global equity markets as investors dumped stocks in favor of gold and Treasuries. With three European countries having required bailouts, concern over weakening demand and rising unemployment is spreading. A report yesterday said confidence among small businesses fell in July for the fifth consecutive month as the sales outlook dimmed.

The quotations above are from August, but we find ourselves in virtually the same situation today (check the report headlines for the past number of months) with weak consumer confidence and corollary spending levels. 

So here we witness a massive effort by our top elected officials to save a budget-cutting process that will likely impoverish our nation and citizens still further in order to spare from cuts one of the more fraudulent, yet highly-entrenched sectors of the national economy, while managing to simultaneously increase future budget deficits due to reduced tax revenues (driven by weak consumer spending, once again).  These are the priorities and policy solutions of our elected officials these days.  Tell me that isn’t a chilling thought.  Once again, on whose behalf do they truly work?

Is the GOP purposely sabotaging economic recovery for political gain?

What do you think?

A Suffolk University poll was released today that polled registered voters in Florida and asked a key question:

Do you think the Republicans are intentionally stalling efforts to jumpstart the economy to insure that Barack Obama is not reelected?

Now, I have been telling many of my friends and relatives (much to their collective chagrin, I’m sure) that the political and economic situation in the country – continued high unemployment, political stalemate in Congress, a disillusioned citizenry – means that, politically, the Republicans would have the most to gain electorally if the economy remains stagnant.  As Bill Clinton’s pollster James Carville famously quipped in 1992, “it’s the economy, stupid.”  Conventional political wisdom (and a fair amount of political science research) points to the notion that, electorally, the president generally bears the most responsibility for the state of the economy in voters’ eyes, rightfully deserved or not. 

The corollary to this situation we face today is that, in a cynical political calculus, the Republicans can increase their chances of taking the White House in 2012 if they actively work against economic recovery.  It sounds sinister to even suggest such a thing, doesn’t it?  Well, what do you think the popular view of the situation is among Florida voters?

Do you think the Republicans are intentionally stalling efforts to jumpstart the economy to insure that Barack Obama is not reelected?

Yes 49

No 39

Undecided 12

49%…that’s something, ain’t it?  Meanwhile, the partisan split on the polling is quite fascinating as well:

As expected, most registered Democrats (70 percent) agreed that Republicans are intentionally hindering the economy and hurting Obama, but independents (52 percent) and even some Republicans (24 percent) also agreed. (emphasis added)

Independents are often regarded as the lily-white souls who just can’t bear partisan conflict in politics, so the fact that 52% are siding with Obama on this question might reflect a majority view among that crucial demographic that the obstruction is coming from only one party.  The 24% of Republicans who agree with the question could reflect a small group of Republican voters who are willing to acknowledge such scorched-earth tactics from the GOP, and they may even approve of such tactics in order to defeat President Obama.  There is at least one big caveat to drawing too much out of these poll numbers; it’s not a national poll, it’s only Florida voters, so the applicability to other voter groups is negligible.

All that being said, however, this poll represents something new for this election cycle: acknowledgment that the political calculus for Republicans favors maintaining and/or increasing the economic misery for the American populace.  Left-leaning writers and bloggers have been discussing this issue for months, but the fact that such a notion has penetrated into the rarefied air of a respected polling organization’s survey questions is something entirely new. 

As Steve Benen notes, this single poll cries out for verification and/or contradiction, but that can only be done by further polling – polling that will have its results reported by the media, which will be forced to actually acknowledge the nature of the “sabotage” question asked, thus potentially raising the question in the minds of the viewing American public.  Such a situation does not bode well for the GOP, as their strategy of getting away with massive legislative obstruction (as seen in Sen. Mitch McConnell’s blocking of a vote on the President’s infrastructure bill in the Senate today) relies upon the median voter not grasping the nuances of parliamentary procedure in Congress to directly link such obstruction to the GOP’s actions.  Hiding in plain sight, as it were, with plausible deniability built-in.

For a long while, such actions appear to have worked, in a Pyrrhic sense, what with President Obama’s approval rating steadily dropping since mid-June. And yet, Congress has not been immune from blowback. Congress’ collective approval rating is now averaging 12.7%, according to RealClearPolitics.  Congressional approval ratings are historically virtually always lower than those of the President, but with a CBS News/NY Times poll recently showing Congress to only have a 9% approval rating (the lowest ever recorded since the poll was first launched) Americans are increasingly angry at their elected representatives these days.  The flipside of President Obama’s dropping poll numbers from the summer, as seen in the link above, are that his positives are now increasing again as he has honed his message on jobs and the economy.  All the GOP has had to offer are a bunch of blockades of legislative procedure and empty “jobs proposals” full of the same sorts of ideas they’ve been promulgating since Reagan’s presidency. 

Our politics is beyond broken these days, it is now actively heartless too.  Our representatives seem not to have much of an inkling of what “representing” Americans means, given the widespread and massive suffering amongst and all around us.  Witness Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA), Chair of the Armed Services Committee, writing to the New York Times to argue contra Paul Krugman that he is anything but a closet defense Keynesian:

Congress is charged by the Constitution with providing for the common defense by raising and supporting our armed forces. We don’t spend tax dollars to protect American jobs, but to protect American lives. As such, it is accurate to point out that cuts in defense spending will cripple a critical industry, result in huge job losses and erode our ability to provide for the common defense. (h/t Kevin Drum)

I don’t know, is it just me, or does it not seem that “protecting American jobs” seems like exactly what we ought to be spending our precious and vanishing tax dollars on in the interest of “common defense”?  Have you seen our defense budget lately?  Methinks the Pentagon is doing just fine, thank you.  Why not use some Congressional intervention on behalf of the American people, rather than defense contractors, who have had bonanzas yearly since the “War on Terror” began?

Would that we had representatives working on our behalf…perhaps Congress ought to be the next venue for some Occupy-flavored civil disobedience?

#OccupyWallStreet: The precursors to the occupations?

I was just reading Christina Romer’s very well-done piece in Sunday’s New York Times, making the case that announcing nominal GDP targeting should be the Federal Reserve’s next policy move (I encourage you to read the article for the details).  Here’s the key section I’d like to highlight:

HOW would this help to heal the economy? Like the Volcker money target, it would be a powerful communication tool. By pledging to do whatever it takes to return nominal G.D.P. to its pre-crisis trajectory, the Fed could improve confidence and expectations of future growth.

Such expectations could increase spending and growth today: Consumers who are more certain that they’ll have a job next year would be less hesitant to spend, and companies that believe sales will be rising would be more likely to invest.

--

Though announcing the new framework would help, it probably wouldn’t be enough to close the nominal G.D.P. gap anytime soon. The Fed would need to take additional steps. These might include further quantitative easing, more forceful promises about short-term interest rates, and perhaps moves to lower the exchange rate. Such actions wouldn’t just affect expectations; they would also be directly helpful. For example, a weaker dollar would stimulate exports.

How many of you reading this article feel that our government is “willing to do whatever it takes” to get us out of this persistent unemployment crisis, with all of its attendant suffering and economic misery?  I’d bet not a one of you – I certainly don’t think our government is trying its best to fix things.  Of course, it depends on how one defines “government” I suppose, but if you initially think of our elected branches, since we voters have the most direct control over the executive and the legislative, then no, the “government” in that sense is definitely not working on our behalf! 

And really, how ridiculous is it that the government of the wealthiest country that has ever existed can’t even act in a coordinated manner to stem the suffering of a massive segment of its population?  Or perhaps even more sinister, it appears that the government won’t act to stem the suffering.  Our elected officials have abdicated virtually any and all responsibility until after November 2012 in order to best position themselves politically and rhetorically for the electoral battles to come.  Sure the President is still hammering away on his newfound populist message, his “jobs proposal,” and is taking actions on behalf of homeowners, student loan borrowers, and prescription drug patients, among others, but let’s be honest folks, his track record on the “following-through-on-populist-sentiments” score ain’t that great…(see option, public for an example).

So now we face the absurd reality that the Federal Reserve, the quasi-governmental entity that is perhaps the least-democratic, most-opaque, and most removed from the basic economic reality of most Americans is being pushed to solve our jobs crisis through pure monetary policy.  The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of preserving price stability as well as maintaining full employment, and the main critique of the Fed for many years has been that it has focused virtually exclusively on the former (in the form of interest rate targeting) while wholly neglecting the latter.  Despite the fact that it has been broadly apparent that allowing interest rates to rise somewhat would facilitate the creation of more jobs, the interest rate hawks within the Fed have consistently put a stop to any of those practices, warning of mythical “bond vigilantes” who will decide that US Treasuries are no longer worth investing in if the interest rate rises even a smidge, despite massive evidence to the contrary.  (The counterpoint, of course, is that investing in Treasuries represents the safest investment one can make in the troubled and volatile world markets, as while the state of the US debt and economy overall might cause debt holders concern if the rest of the world were in better shape, the relative position and strength of the US economy in the current world economy makes it a better investment vis a vis other sovereign bonds.)  But I digress.

Why are people occupying so many public spaces in so many cities across the United States and abroad?  I think it is precisely as a response to the massive systemic failure we’ve witnessed at all levels of our government to actually make a positive impact on the vast majority of Americans’ lives.  This is not to say that Americans en masse are waiting for government aid or action or anything like that, rather that the silliness we are witnessing playing out on Capitol Hill and in the White House, the constant tit-for-tat, is leading Americans to see their government as willfully sitting on its perfectly-capable hands, rather than deigning to lift a finger to tilt the scales of justice even minutely back on their side. 

A significant portion of these Occupiers likely played a large role in electing President Obama in 2008 – the sense of triumph in that election was not simply due to the historical nature of electing the first African-American president, but because Obama appeared to represent a turn of the page, or perhaps, a close of the book, from the utter depredation of the Bush Administration, hollowed out to a shell of itself in the end due to its sheer lack of competence.  Post-Katrina America had scars, deep scars affecting the national sense of whether the government was truly acting in our interests or not if it could bungle emergency management so completely. 

Obama represented a shift towards competence, towards smart folks who looked at the data to get things done and make decisions…and yet, after the health care debate, the pyrrhic victory of an apparent giveaway to the health insurance industry, combined with the Wall Street-friendly nature of the new Administration, and the declaration that many of the high-level prosecutions that many desired for actors both inside and outside of government were to be strictly off-limits by Obama and Attorney General Holder marked a certain continuity between the Bush and Obama Administrations: elites are coddled, bailed out, and constantly regaled, no matter their transgressions.  The little people, the 99%, have no place in this insular Washington-Wall Street-Pentagon calculus.

The election of Obama, in this narrative, represents not the shift, the hope, the change that people were hoping for, but the continuation of the perpetual insult to the nation’s sense of values and fairness – an insult that, prior to the rise of the Occupy movement was largely undefined and nameless for many Americans.  Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib, bank bailouts, auto bailouts, the death of the public option, no Wall Street prosecutions, no torture prosecutions, warrantless wiretapping, unmanned drone strikes on countries and civilians we aren’t at war with, wars that are declared against enemies that are largely undefined…whose heads roll for any of these awful decisions? 

The failure of our institutions, and the growing widespread understanding of that fact, as I alluded to a few weeks ago, and more obliquely, in the title of my last blog post “Don’t think it’s not bipartisan, it is,” is profoundly bipartisan.  It had to be to manifest itself so clearly to so many at just this point in time.  Just as you would likely not have a Tea Party had John McCain won, the nature of the Occupy movement, if it were to exist in an alternate world under a McCain Administration, would be very different to what we see today.  It took the failure of Obama, the landslide-elected change agent to bring justice, to bring accountability to the corrupt elites of this country, for the Occupy movement to spring up.  In this case, perhaps the Change that is thus far unrealized will be the catalyst for the realization of the true Change, whatever that may be. 

The bipartisan failure is a wholesale indictment of the entire construct of democracy in this country, and has likely soured many in the Millenial generation on the act of voting itself.  Perhaps democracy, as it is now constructed, is not in fact the method for enacting the change we wish to see in the world?  Could it be that the leverage points upon which the entrenched interests and powers can bring their influence to bear on candidates and nominating parties in our democratic system are simply too numerous and too porous?  The vast constellation of special interests funding candidates these days ensures the ascendance of a certain type of candidate: one who must be conversant in the ways of money, though preferably not “of” money (they’re easier to control with the promise of high-paying post public service jobs, you see) and who have hewn lines that conform to the dominant economic and social memes of the day, thus ensuring the continued preservation of the entrenched classes.  Any “change” will thus be marginal, minimal, the scraps thrown to those too poor to afford their own public affairs divisions or hired-gun lobbyists to press their case in the halls of power. 

Ultimately, though, it doesn’t matter whether Obama speaks the right words, or even whether he follows through on his newly populistic leanings with actual substantive legislative victories; the narrative is no longer his to drive, nor is it the GOP’s or the Tea Party’s.  They are reacting, all of them.  Consider:

Occupy Wall Street has already achieved a stunning victory – a victory that is easy to overlook, but impossible to overstate. In just one month, the protesters have shifted the national dialogue from a relentless focus on the deficit to a discussion of the real issues facing Main Street: the lack of jobs -- and especially jobs with decent benefits -- spiraling inequality, cash-strapped American families' debt-loads, and the pernicious influence of money in politics that led us to this point.

To borrow the loosely defined terms that define the Occupy movement, these ordinary citizens have shifted the conversation away from what the “1 percent” -- the corporate right and its dedicated media, network of think-tanks and PR shops -- want to talk about and, notably, paid good money to get us to talk about.

What were you reading about daily in the newspapers as recently as 6 weeks ago?  Austerity austerity austerity.  What did the Occupy movement bring to the table?  Non-manufactured talking points that actually speak to people.  Something you can bring home to your family and discuss at your kitchen table as a concept that everyone understands, intuitively.  Fair wages, decent jobs, non-criminal banks, supporting your neighbors and your community.  These are American values, no matter what the cable news pundits say who myopically search for the “demands” of the Occupy movement despite the hundreds and thousands of protest signs shouting demands right at them. 

People want a fair shake, for themselves, their children, their coworkers, their neighbors, their fellow churchgoers.  That’s pretty much all I’ve come up with, at the end of the day, and it’s pretty simple.  How we get to the fair shake for all is the more complicated problem.