As a follow-up to my post from last week regarding polling on the question of whether the GOP is purposely sabotaging economic recovery in order to defeat President Obama next year, I thought I’d bring my dear readers’ attentions to the results of two new polls released today that cover similar territory. I had mentioned that the Suffolk University poll from last week was just crying out for additional data to help discern a trend or not, and it appears we have some further data to work with now.
First off, a Washington Post/ABC News poll of 1,004 adults, with a 3.5% margin of error asked the following question:
Which of the following statements comes closest to your point of view? Statement A: (President Obama is making a good faith effort to deal with the country's economic problems, but the Republicans in Congress are playing politics by blocking his proposals and programs.) Or Statement B: (President Obama has not provided leadership on the economy, and he is just blaming the Republicans in Congress as an excuse for not doing his job.)
Compare the wording to that of last week’s Suffolk University poll:
Do you think the Republicans are intentionally stalling efforts to jumpstart the economy to insure that Barack Obama is not reelected?
The WaPo/ABC poll is not as clear with respondents about the political intent of any perceived economic sabotage on the GOP’s part – referring to “playing politics” rather than “to insure that Barack Obama is not reelected” – but the underlying message is essentially the same: do you think the GOP is purposely making the economy worse for political purposes? The results:
Which of the following statements comes closest to your point of view? Statement A: (President Obama is making a good faith effort to deal with the country's economic problems, but the Republicans in Congress are playing politics by blocking his proposals and programs.) Or Statement B: (President Obama has not provided leadership on the economy, and he is just blaming the Republicans in Congress as an excuse for not doing his job.)
Obama making a good effort: 50
Obama has not provided leadership: 44
Both (vol.): 2
Neither (vol.): 2
No opinion: 1
And once again, the results of the Suffolk poll:
Do you think the Republicans are intentionally stalling efforts to jumpstart the economy to insure that Barack Obama is not reelected?
Yes 49
No 39
Undecided 12
Okay then! Seems like there could be something more to this meme now. Greg Sargent pulls out the internals of the WaPo poll, providing more points of interest:
The toplines: Americans agree with the first statement over the second one, 50-44. According to numbers sent my way by the Post polling team, this is more pronounced among moderates and independents:
* Independents favor statement one over statement two by 54-40.
* Moderates favor statement one over statement two by 57-37.
The overall number is lower, at 50 percent, because a hilariously meager nine percent of Republicans believe this to be the case.
Who likes to have their side accused of “playing politics” with anything? It just sounds offensive when we’re talking about real peoples’ lives and the overall economy, no wonder only 9% of Republicans agree with statement #1.
Our third poll of the day, which Talking Points Memo’s Brian Beutler argues constitutes a “trend,” (I would agree) is one commissioned by the liberal blog DailyKos:
Also on Monday, liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas publicized the top lines of a PPP poll he commissioned, which closely mimic the the Post/ABC survey: “50% think GOP intentionally stalling economy, incl 51% of Indies, & 15% of GOPers. Details Tuesday.”
So here we have three polls showing broadly similar results to similarly-worded questions (although the exact wording of the DailyKos poll will be out tomorrow) and which also show that a majority of independents ascribe to some version of the notion that the GOP is deliberately sabotaging the economy. As we are all surely aware now, the vast and growing “middle” of the electorate is where the true electoral battleground lies for 2012 (and virtually every modern election) so it would appear that President Obama has the upper hand with this crucial slice of the populace, no? Steve Benen, echoing Greg Sargent, notes the inherent danger of the polls’ findings for the President:
Though in theory, it should, this won’t necessarily give President Obama a boost. The degree of national cynicism is so intense, many Americans may simply assume Republicans are sabotaging the national economy, but take their frustrations out on the president anyway. As Greg noted, “The number who see Obama as a strong leader is now upside down (48-51), suggesting yet again that even if Americans understand that Republicans are deliberately blocking Obama’s policies, they may conclude that his failure to get around them just shows he’s weak or ineffectual.”
Voters’ understanding of the political process is severely limited, and many Americans likely fail to appreciate the role Congress must play in policymaking. There are no doubt plenty of voters thinking, “Sure, Republicans are sabotaging the economy, but why can’t Obama just go around them?” unaware of the fact that, on a grand scale, this isn’t an option. (emphasis added)
Indeed, President Obama’s failure to “get around” Congress is the true reason why he’s embarked on his “jobs tour” the past couple months – taking his message directly to the people of America, urging them to contact their Congressmember and tell them to act on jobs and the economy. In a broad sense, it appears the efforts are paying off, according to Josh Marshall. Furthermore, the amount of braying from the GOP about “class warfare” from the President has increased proportionally as his jobs message has caught on. Witness Rep. Eric Cantor’s aborted speech about “income inequality” (note: he canceled the speech when it was revealed that Occupy protesters planned to respond to him by exercising their free speech rights) and Rep. Paul Ryan’s speech to the conservative Heritage Foundation largely predicated on the notion that America needs to preserve its heritage of economic mobility through surprise! not raising taxes on the wealthiest among us. (Note: he’s wrong about our economic mobility rates compared to other countries.)
So where does all of this data leave us now? Well it would seem that President Obama needs to work closely with the Democrats in Congress to present a focused message (not easy with Democrats, ever) regarding the GOP’s obstructionism. Pushing the “sabotage” message, in concert with more polling data showing similar results to those presented here, will force the media to cover the sabotage meme more widely and thus put the Republicans on defense on job creation – exactly the situation they hope not to find themselves in heading into a still-very-unsettled GOP presidential primary season and an election year. President Obama’s rather limited moves last week on student loan reform, homeowner relief and jobs proposals for veterans might represent a good-faith show of effort for those skeptical independents and moderates doubting his leadership, and they could marginally influence his standing with those key constituencies. But overall, those moves show the Presidency’s economic weakness vis-à-vis Congress, and the relative ineffectiveness of the Executive branch’s sprawling bureaucracy to help improve peoples’ lives in a truly meaningful way. Coordinated actions between the Executive and Legislative branches are what is needed, but until Obama and the Democrats can find leverage points to force the Congressional GOP’s hands on job creating legislation, it is unlikely the President will be able to do much more than chip away at the margins of the economic problems facing this country, winning message or not.
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